The U.S. and its international allies are worried that it is instead the testing of a long-range rocket designed to send nuclear payloads long distances, up to 4,000 miles, which means they could even reach some areas in the United States. Based on North Korea's consistent antagonism towards the West, disregard for international agreements, and dedication to its military and the development of new weapons, the rocket launch is a troubling development. Another aspect to consider with a successful long-range rocket system in N. Korea is that it may start selling it to other nations, such as Iran. The ripples from a successful rocket launch will reach every corner of the world.
Both South Korea and Japan have said that if the missile goes over their countries, they will shoot it down. It's not clear if they mean they'll shoot it down if it is going to land in their territories, or if it merely crosses over their countries. Either way, North Korea has said that shooting down the rocket will be regarded as an act of war. The rocket test appears to be an attempt by North Korea's new leader to better cement his leadership position in N. Korea. And although the risk of it veering off course is low, guidance remains its weakest point.
Meanwhile, as usual, China remains silent on the N. Korea situation, and continues to send food and other aid to N. Korea, without which N. Korea would not be able to survive as a nation. N. Korea is severely impoverished, and due to its antagonistic stance toward the international community, the only country willing to assist N. Korea in obtaining necessary food and aid is China. Without China, N. Korea can't survive unless it completely changes its attitude on international relations and military intentions.
The Obama administration has voiced concern over the impending rocket launch and seems intent on continuing to seek various sanctions against a country that has never given any credence to sanctions, and against which very few, if any, sanctions could have much effect, since the nation is already basically cut off from trading with the international community.
U.S. and other nations' intelligence claim that N. Korea has been developing enriched uranium for some time now, and probably has enough fissile material to make 4 to 6 nuclear weapons. If they are successful in developing a long-range rocket capable of carrying a nuclear payload up to 4,000 miles, it will constitute a very real threat to peace, particularly in the East Asian region.
China is intent on dominating the far east Asian region, and its support of N. Korea continues to be a problem. An antagonistic N. Korea is one thing, but a far superior Chinese military is a virtual lock to dominate the region militarily if it so desires - a spark from N. Korea could easily lead to an all-out military campaign in the region which would bring China right into the mix and give it an excuse to flex its muscles. Our allies South Korea and Japan stand to lose the most if a military conflict breaks out. And, of course, the U.S. would necessarily be dragged into yet another military venture, further endangering U.S. military personnel and further stressing an already tapped out government budget.
So what should we do about North Korea's actions? I contend that without getting China to take action to keep N. Korea in check, there is little we can do short of military intervention that will deter N. Korea from continuing to develop long-range rockets, nuclear weapons, and instigating its Asian opponents. So the question is how do we get China to cooperate with us in keeping N. Korea from starting a war?
Well, since China makes untold billions of dollars every month shipping and selling its goods to the U.S., we might start by telling China that until they pressure N. Korea to cool it, we won't let any of their goods into the U.S. - we might hold all shipments of Chinese goods in port, not allowing them into the U.S. marketplace. This would cost China a great deal of money each day their goods sit idle in their containers on ships and at docks in U.S. ports. I have to think China would assist with N. Korea to some degree in order to prevent a shutdown of their trade with the U.S. - we are their number one purchaser of stuff, so China would lose a large portion of its trade profits in such a situation.
This would be a reasonable, non-military action the U.S. could take to gain China's help. It can only help, and there's really no downside as it wouldn't constitute any type of military action or threat and it would probably have the positive side effect of increasing U.S. manufacturers' share of just about every market industry - after all, someone will have to pick up the slack of filling store shelves with the millions of items that would no longer be coming from China.
Imagine if Wal-Mart, which used to be dedicated to selling only made-in-the-USA goods (RIP, Sam Walton), had to start seeking U.S. suppliers for virtually all of its wares in the event that Chinese goods are stranded in port. That one company alone would provide a very large stimulus boost to the U.S. economy, and companies like Target, Home Depot, Office Max, and Sears would also start replacing lost Chinese goods with American-made products. The omnipresent "Made in China" labels we see on everything would start to be replaced with pride-instilling "Made in the USA!" labels.
In any event, the Chinese product-stranding strategy is just one example of an action we could take to garner assistance from China on the N. Korean problem(s). There are a wide array of economic sanctions we could threaten China with that would undoubtedly lead them to keep N. Korea in check. Without China in the picture, there isn't really anything we can do that is non-military to dissuade N. Korea from continuing to antagonize the region and develop long-range weapons. And when it comes down to it, China would suffer far more from trade cessation between the U.S. and China than the U.S. would - after all, there aren't too many "Made in the USA" labels on goods lining Chinese store shelves.
Unfortunately, I suspect our current leadership doesn't have the courage to stand up to China, meaning N. Korea's rocket launch will proceed as planned, and an unpredictable, troubling fallout will result. Hopefully, the next president, whether it be Obama, Romney, or Santorum, will begin to realize that N. Korea cannot be contained without including China in the equation, which requires hitting China where it hurts: their wallet.
If we're lucky, the entire situation will be postponed by another rocket launch failure by N. Korea - their last attempt ended in the accidental explosion of the rocket shortly after lift-off. This will just mean the problem is delayed, not solved. It will need to be addressed at some point.
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